Can Donald Trump turn poll numbers into votes?

1	Can Donald Trump turn poll numbers into votes?
2	Washington (CNN)First he defined the "Art of the Deal."
3	Now he seems determined to redefine the art of politics.
4	But no one has ever won the presidency playing the game like Donald Trump.
5	And Trump is not just breaking all the rules as he rips through the Republican field like a tornado.
6	The billionaire construction mogul will shatter the conventions of presidential campaigning if his unrepentant, antagonistic media tour leads to the Republican nomination.
7	He's made a boastful evisceration of Beltway wisdom on how to run for president the entire rationale of his campaign -- and six months before first votes are cast, he is winning.
8	He leads national polls, topping early voting state surveys Tuesday, and has sidestepped the kind of ugly controversies and policy flip-flops that have felled other candidates.
9	But questions are gathering around the unlikely GOP front-runner, despite his success in confounding pundits and his display of unforeseen political instincts that have forced the media to treat the bombastic reality show star they once viewed as a punch line as a genuine White House contender.
10	In particular: Just how long can The Donald keep this up?
11	Can a campaign prospering at the intersection of politics, celebrity and self-publicity with an incendiary social media strategy exploiting public disdain for establishment politicians sustain momentum through the six long months before the first nominating votes are cast?
12	"Campaigns are not going to be won and lost on Twitter," said John Sides, co-author of "The Gamble," a new political science study on the 2012 presidential campaign.
13	"(Campaigns) are going to be won and lost in part because you have an organization, and you are deploying those resources in fairly ordinary ways -- knocking on doors to buying television advertisements," he continued.
14	Trump's short but explosive campaign has so far made clear that he does have attributes that many more conventional candidates long for -- an ability to command media attention at will, enviable name recognition, a unique personal brand, a vast fortune that can finance his presidential aspirations and a knack for inserting himself into simmering political controversies.
15	But for all Trump's genius in manipulating the media, it's almost inconceivable that an insurgent like him can beat the political establishment of a major political party and win its nomination without mastering the political tools of the establishment itself -- the more prosaic skills of mustering supporters at the grass-roots to head to the polls and satisfying diverse state rules for getting on the ballot, for instance.
16	Successful political campaigns involve a fusion of organization with inspiration.
17	Vast nationwide structures and state-specific teams are needed to shepherd a candidate through the months up to and through successive nominating contests.
18	The contrasting fates of President Barack Obama, who mastered grass-roots organizing, and Hillary Clinton, who didn't, in their 2008 Democratic primary clash proved that the charisma of a rock star candidate -- on which Trump overloads -- is not enough.
19	Eventually, candidates need to be underwritten by a solid policy operation, an expansive grass-roots network and a strategy to identify voters precinct by precinct and drive them to the polls on cold winter nights in ice-bound Iowa and New Hampshire.
20	In Trump's case, it remains unclear whether his campaign can continue to thrive on his bombastic personality alone.
21	No one yet knows whether Trump will commit to building the vital infrastructure of a genuine political campaign, which typically needs an advertising strategy, intricate polling data, get-out-the-vote operations and rapid-response war rooms staffed by political veterans.
22	Real estate developer and entrepreneur Donald Trump has been in the spotlight for years.
23	From producing and starring in TV shows to campaigning for the U.S. presidency, see how he's shaped his empire.
24	Trump stands with Alfred Eisenpreis, New York's economic development administrator, in 1976 while they look at a sketch of a new 1,400-room renovation project of the Commodore Hotel.
25	After graduating from the University of Pennsylvania in 1968, Trump worked with his father on developments in Queens and Brooklyn before purchasing or building multiple properties in New York and Atlantic City, New Jersey.
26	Those properties included Trump Tower in New York and Trump Plaza and multiple casinos in Atlantic City.
27	Trump was married to Ivana Zelnicek Trump from 1977-1990, when they divorced.
28	They had three children together.
29	Trump dips his second wife, Marla Maples, after the couple married in a private ceremony in New York in December 1993.
30	The couple divorced in 1999.
31	An advertisement for the television show "The Apprentice" hangs at Trump Towers in New York in 2004.
32	The show launched in January of that year.
33	In January 2008, the show returned as "Celebrity Apprentice."
34	A 12-inch talking Trump doll is on display at a toy store in New York in September 2004.
35	Trump wrestles with "Stone Cold" Steve Austin at WrestleMania in 2007.
36	Trump has close ties with the WWE and its CEO, Vince McMahon.
37	Trump attends the U.S. Open tennis tournament with his third wife, Melania Knauss-Trump, and their son, Barron William Trump, in 2006.
38	Trump and Knauss married in 2005.
39	Trump has five children from three marriages.
40	For "The Apprentice," Trump was honored with a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in January 2007.
41	according to his website.
42	Trump holds a copy of his book "Think Big and Kick Ass in Business and Life" at a book signing in New York in 2007.
43	He has published 16 books, according to his website.
44	In 2009, Trump announced his resignation as chairman of Trump Entertainment Resorts.
45	Days later, Trump Entertainment Resorts filed for bankruptcy.
46	A supporter comes out for Trump at a tea party event in Boca Raton, Florida, in April 2011.
47	Trump said he had considered running for President in 2012.
48	President's Hawaiian birth certificate, Trump said "a lot of people do not think it was an authentic certificate."
49	In 2012, Trump announces his endorsement of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
50	In May 2012, on CNN's "The Situation Room," Trump said that President Barack Obama's birthplace is a matter of opinion.
51	In regards to the President's Hawaiian birth certificate, Trump said "a lot of people do not think it was an authentic certificate."
52	Trump speaks in Sarasota, Florida, after accepting the Statesman of the Year Award at the Sarasota GOP dinner in August 2012.
53	It was just before the Republican National Convention in nearby Tampa.
54	Trump appears on stage with Nick Jonas and Giuliana Rancic during the 2013 Miss USA pageant.
55	Trump has been executive producer of the Miss Universe, Miss USA and Miss Teen USA pageants since 1996.
56	Trump announces that he is running for President during a speech from Trump Tower in New York.
57	He said he will give up the show "The Apprentice" to run.
58	His recent comments on undocumented immigrants from Mexico has led to Univision deciding not to air the Miss Universe pageant, which is co-owned by Trump and NBCUniversal.
59	Within days, NBCUniversal and Macy's also cut ties.
60	On June 16, Trump announces that he is running for President during a speech from Trump Tower in New York.
61	"He has hired several consultants in places like Iowa and South Carolina, but it is not as professional as the likes of (Jeb) Bush's campaign or Marco Rubio's," said Sean Cain, a professor at Loyola University who has studied Trump's political infrastructure by examining Federal Election Commission records.
62	"It seems that he has the type of campaign structure that is not going to get him too far," Cain said.
63	"He really needs to have, not a national news presence, but a national organization made up of the types of human resources and personnel that a winning campaign needs."
64	Trump's Iowa state director, Chuck Laudner, said that, despite a staff shakeup, the campaign would build a professional ground game, though it did not need "an army of consultants," CNN reported Tuesday.
65	The billionaire has 10 staffers in Iowa and is in the process of building state operations elsewhere.
66	But unless that effort expands significantly, it's possible that breaking the rules of conventional politics -- the strategy that took Trump to the top of the GOP field and secured his starring role in early television debates -- could prove to be his downfall.
67	That's one reason few political watchers in the ranks of consultant shops, academia or journalism expect him to actually win caucuses or primaries -- even though his unlikely presidential campaign has already repeatedly defied predictions by pundits of an imminent implosion.
68	Stunning attacks on Sen. John McCain and Fox News host Megyn Kelly are just two of those he's seemed to weather.
69	A campaign without structure?
70	Costas Panagopoulos, head of the campaigns and elections program at Fordham University, said any serious political campaign needs structure.
71	"I don't see much structure in the Trump organization as is evident in other Republican campaigns at the moment or in previous campaigns for president."
72	He added, "There is only so far a candidate can go as a one-man show."
73	Trump's answers to such critiques have so far been to point out, correctly, that he has defied conventional wisdom time and time again.
74	He says he's simply bigger, better and smarter than anyone else, implying that the rules constraining normal political mortals simply don't apply.
75	"I know policy better than anybody. I know politics as well as anybody," Trump said on CNN's "New Day" on Tuesday.
76	"I am not a politician. Politicians are all talk and no action," he said.
77	"I'm the opposite."
78	Trump may have more leeway on this area than a conventional politician owing to his money and celebrity, and it's already clear that he has succeeded in one of the most important tasks of a presidential campaign -- presenting an authentic version of himself and his political brand to voters.
79	Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, by contrast ran for president twice and never seemed to master that elementary but vital imperative.
80	And given that he's leading the polls, Trump may have a case for sticking with what works.
81	In a poll published by Suffolk University on Tuesday, Trump was the clear leader in Iowa, ahead of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker by 17% to 12%.
82	He led former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in a Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University poll in New Hampshire by 18% to 13%.
83	In the latest CNN Poll of Polls, Trump led his nearest rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, by 10 points.
84	But there are danger signs for Trump, who has yet to prove he could lift his support above the 30% level to make the case that he is a more viable candidate.
85	While he is the undisputed front-runner right now, his position is atop a huge Republican field -- a factor that is splitting opposition against him.
86	There's no guarantee that when the field contracts, that support will flow his way.
87	And currently, a strong majority of Republican voters -- around three in four -- still prefer someone else.
88	Recent electoral history also suggests that leading the pack of GOP presidential candidates in the summer before nominating contests open is a recipe for political obscurity.
89	In 2012, GOP candidates like former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, pizza magnate Herman Cain and Rep, Michele Bachmann all basked in state and national poll leads but fell back once their booms played themselves out.
90	All suffered what Sides, a professor of political science at George Washington University, and his co-author Lynn Vavreck identify as a pattern for outsider candidates in presidential races.
91	In a cycle they called "discover, scrutiny and decline," each candidate rocketed to prominence on the back of favorable media coverage, then came under scrutiny over their records or perceived gaffes and dipped in the polls.
92	Trump has experienced an explosion of media coverage after launching his campaign with a prolonged rant of an announcement speech in June -- but, though his record is beginning to be scrutinized, he has yet to submit to a full examination of his character, political platform and past.
93	Such a grilling is sure to come, especially for a candidate who has no history in elected office or of policymaking and who hardly fits the mold of conservatives preferred by grass-roots GOP activists who participate in primaries.
94	One reason Trump has succeeded with his act so far is that his media dominance has made it difficult for another candidate to emerge and steal the narrative, as Sides' research suggests often happens to a front-runner.
95	But given the political media's thirst for new story lines, even a publicity hound like Trump seems likely to become old news at some point.
96	There are also other potential pitfalls for Trump.
97	Right now, it may make sense for him to remain vague on what exactly he would do as president -- framing policies often makes political enemies -- but that approach isn't likely to be sustainable.
98	"I know exactly what I want to do, I just don't want to announce it yet," Trump told CNN's "New Day" on Tuesday in a typical dodge, when asked how he would reform the tax code.
99	He's so far preferred to deal in inflammatory generalities rather than wonkish specifics, promising to build a wall to keep out illegal immigrants and send Mexico the bill and proposing to "knock the hell" out of ISIS without offering a clear strategy.
100	But sooner or later, the discerning conservative voters of Iowa and New Hampshire -- not to mention his political opponents and the media -- will demand more details.
101	"Many (people) don't mind the way he's talking about the issues in a broad picture, he's getting the concepts out there," said Amy Showalter, an expert in political action committees and grass-roots organizing.
102	But Trump will soon have some explaining to do if he wants to continue gaining additional support, she said.
103	"A conventional political operation will become more and more necessary the farther he goes."
104	It's not unusual at this stage of a presidential campaign for candidates to lack specific proposals as they instead seek to communicate a broad message to the public.
105	But there's an expectation among voters and the media that they will begin to roll out detailed policies as the process goes along -- Democrat Clinton, and Republicans Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, for instance, are making regular in-depth speeches on domestic and foreign policy.
106	22 photos: Who's running for President?
107	announced his presidential bid April 7 at a rally in Louisville.
108	Paul is the son of former presidential hopeful Ron Paul of Texas.
109	Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, officially announced his presidential bid April 7 at a rally in Louisville.
110	"Today I announce with God's help, with the help of liberty lovers everywhere, that I'm putting myself forward as a candidate for President of the United States of America," Paul said at the rally.
111	announced he was seeking the Republican presidential nomination in a speech on March 23.
112	"These are all of our stories," Cruz told the audience at Liberty University in Virginia.
113	"These are who we are as Americans. And yet for so many Americans, the promise of America seems more and more distant."
114	Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has made a name for himself in the Senate, solidifying his brand as a conservative firebrand willing to take on the GOP's establishment.
115	launched her presidential bid on April 12 through a video message on social media.
116	The former first lady, senator and secretary of state is considered the front-runner among possible Democratic candidates.
117	"Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion -- so you can do more than just get by -- you can get ahead. And stay ahead," she said in her announcement video.
118	"Because when families are strong, America is strong. So I'm hitting the road to earn your vote, because it's your time. And I hope you'll join me on this journey."
119	Hillary Clinton launched her presidential bid on April 12 through a video message on social media.
120	announced his 2016 bid with a rally in Miami on April 13, a day after Clinton announced.
121	He's a Republican rising star who swept into office in 2010 in a wave of tea party fervor.
122	Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, announced his 2016 bid with a rally in Miami on April 13, a day after Clinton announced.
123	"Grounded by the lessons of our history, but inspired by the promise of our future, I announce my candidacy for President of the United States of America," Rubio told supporters at Miami's Freedom Tower.
124	Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who caucuses with Democrats, announced his run in an email to supporters on April 30.
125	He has said the United States needs a "political revolution" of working-class Americans to take back control of the government from billionaires.
126	"This great nation and its government belong to all of the people and not to a handful of billionaires, their super PACs and their lobbyists," Sanders said at a rally in Vermont on May 26.
127	announced her bid for the Republican nomination on May 4.
128	In 2008 she served as an adviser to Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, and in 2010 she unsuccessfully ran for Barbara Boxer's Senate seat in California.
129	"Yes, I am running," Fiorina said on ABC's "Good Morning America."
130	"I think I'm the best person for the job because I understand how the economy actually works. I understand the world; who's in it."
131	Carly Fiorina, a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, announced her bid for the Republican nomination on May 4.
132	announced he was running for President during a speech May 2 to thousands in Detroit.
133	The retired neurosurgeon and surprise conservative star had been exploring the idea of running for a few months before the announcement.
134	"I'm probably never going to be politically correct, because I'm not a politician," he said in his announcement.
135	"I don't want to be a politician. Because politicians do what is politically expedient -- I want to do what's right."
136	Republican Dr. Ben Carson announced he was running for President during a speech May 2 to thousands in Detroit.
137	announced his candidacy at a rally in Hope, Arkansas, on May 5.
138	Huckabee unsuccessfully ran for the Republican nomination in 2008.
139	This is his second attempt.
140	"I truly am from Hope to higher ground," Huckabee told the crowd during his announcement.
141	"So it seems perfectly fitting that it would be here that I announce that I am a candidate for President of the United States of America."
142	Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee formally announced his candidacy at a rally in Hope, Arkansas, on May 5.
143	announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination from a factory on the outskirts of Pittsburgh on May 27.
144	Santorum, who ran unsuccessfully in 2012, is widely considered the most socially conservative candidate who will enter the race.
145	Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination from a factory on the outskirts of Pittsburgh on May 27.
146	"As middle America is hollowing out, we can't sit idly by as big government politicians make it harder for our workers and then turn around and blame them for losing jobs overseas. American families don't need another President tied to big government or big money," he said during his kickoff rally.
147	announced his bid for the White House in a YouTube video released on May 28.
148	The Republican served three terms as New York's governor, including during the 9/11 attacks.
149	"My vision was not a partisan vision. It was a vision about people, about what we could accomplish together," Pataki said as he narrated a four-minute announcement video.
150	"If we are to flourish as a people, we have to fall in love with America again."
151	Former New York Gov. George Pataki formally announced his bid for the White House in a YouTube video released on May 28.
152	launched his presidential campaign May 30 in Baltimore with an appeal to the party's progressive base that he hopes will upend the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is destined to clinch the Democratic nomination.
153	"This is the urgent work calling us forward today: to rebuild the truth of the American Dream for all Americans," O'Malley said at his rally.
154	"And to begin right now."
155	Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley launched his presidential campaign May 30 in Baltimore with an appeal to the party's progressive base that he hopes will upend the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is destined to clinch the Democratic nomination.
156	launched his bid in Central, S.C., on June 1.
157	Graham is betting his foreign policy experience will set him apart from other potential contenders.
158	South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham made himself the ninth Republican candidate to announce his candidacy.
159	Graham launched his bid in Central, S.C., on June 1.
160	"I want to be President to defeat the enemies trying to kill us, not just penalize them or criticize them or contain them, but defeat them," he said at his kickoff event.
161	his announcement, Perry said: "We don't have to settle for a world in chaos or an America that shrinks from its responsibilities."
162	Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry threw his name into the ring for the Republican nomination on June 4 in Addison, Texas.
163	Perry ran in 2012 but his campaign ended after a debate gaffe and several stump speech missteps.
164	Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee jumped into the 2016 presidential race on June 3 at George Mason University in Virginia.
165	Chafee previously served in the Senate as a Republican and as an Independent governor.
166	He's now running for president as a Democrat.
167	"I enjoy challenges and certainly we have many facing America," Chafee said during his announcement.
168	jumped into the race June 30 during a rally at his former high school in Livingston, New Jersey.
169	He is the 14th candidate on the Republican side to join the race.
170	"We need a government in Washington D.C. that remembers you went there to work for us, not the other way around," he said during the rally.
171	New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie jumped into the race June 30 during a rally at his former high school in Livingston, New Jersey.
172	announced his intention to run.
173	He was once a Republican rising star who passed on an opportunity to seek the White House in 2012.
174	On June 24, hours before a kickoff rally, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal announced his intention to run.
175	"I'm running for President of the United States of America. Join me," Jindal tweeted, with a link to his website's announcement page.
176	announced June 16 at his Trump Tower in New York City that he is seeking the Republican presidential nomination.
177	This ends more than two decades of flirting with the idea of running for the White House.
178	Businessman Donald Trump announced June 16 at his Trump Tower in New York City that he is seeking the Republican presidential nomination.
179	"So, ladies and gentlemen, I am officially running for president of the United States, and we are going to make our country great again," Trump told the crowd at his announcement.
180	kicked off his campaign for the 2016 GOP nomination on June 15 in Miami.
181	If his campaign is victorious, the Bush clan will become the only American family to have elected three of their own to the highest office in the land.
182	"We will get back on the right side of free enterprise and freedom for all Americans," Bush said during his announcement.
183	Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush kicked off his campaign for the 2016 GOP nomination on June 15 in Miami.
184	announced in a tweet on July 2 that he is a candidate for the Democratic nomination for president, which makes him the fifth Democrat to do so.
185	"I understand the odds, particularly in today's political climate where fair debate is so often drowned out by huge sums of money," he said on his website.
186	"We need to shake the hold of these shadow elites on our political process."
187	Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from Virginia, announced in a tweet on July 2 that he is a candidate for the Democratic nomination for president, which makes him the fifth Democrat to do so.
188	On July 13, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker became the 15th Republican to join the race for his party's nomination.
189	He launched his bid with a tweet and a video ahead of his rally in his home-state.
190	In his video, he said, "In the Republican field, there are some who are good fighters, but they haven't won those battles. There are others who have won elections but haven't consistently taken on big fights. We've showed you we can do both."
191	Ohio Gov. John Kasich joined the Republican field July 21 as he formally announced his White House bid.
192	"I am here to ask you for your prayers, for your support ... because I have decided to run for president of the United States," Kasich told his kickoff rally at the Ohio State University.
193	That step toward becoming a conventional politician might strip Trump of much of his anti-politics appeal among disgruntled supporters.
194	But the alternative could be just as strong a liability.
195	As the first voting contests approach early next year in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump may find it more difficult to shake off pressure in presidential debates and candidates' forums to lay out exactly what he would do as president.
196	If he remains a key player at that point, sustained attacks are also likely to be supplemented by outside super PACs and third-party groups, which could make an organized political structure to defend him a necessity.
197	And for all Trump's statements of his vast personal wealth, such a firewall does not come cheap -- opening the possibility that at last he will be forced to undertake some formal fundraising.
198	The daunting obstacles facing Trump, despite his early success, are one reason why many of his rivals seem content so far to let him prolong his moment in the spotlight, half a year before polls really begin to count.
199	"When you are dealing with a tornado or a hurricane, you mostly just have to let it pass," Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor and GOP presidential candidate, told CNN on Tuesday.